{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-21T04:29:38.727000+00:00",
  "smoke": false,
  "design": {
    "lq_rollout": "0% -> 60% of couriers, Jul 1 -> Sep 30 (bulk sync to the hour, ~1 km GPS jitter, 50% re-sent)",
    "stale_rollout": "0% -> 60% of couriers, Sep 16 -> Sep 30, uploads 60 min late",
    "retraining": "monthly: Jul 1, Aug 1, Sep 1 (fit before cutoff, early-stop next 15 days, test rest of month)",
    "countermeasure": "data contract + DataGuard (dedupe, GPS repair, bulk-scan quarantine, review flags) + event-time processing with upload-lag monitoring + staleness-aware model when a feed is stale + PSI drift monitoring + gated retraining on a 10% audited sample",
    "code_path": "systems trained by server.pipeline.train.train_bundle and scored by server.serving.predictor.LiveETAPredictor",
    "scoring": "true delivery times; same real packages and true checkpoint moments for every condition"
  },
  "quality_config": {
    "max_area_offset_km": 1.5,
    "bulk_scan_share": 0.3,
    "stale_feed_minutes": 45.0,
    "fresh_max_feed_age_min": 20.0,
    "fresh_max_upload_lag_min": 10.0,
    "max_duplicate_order_id_pct": 0.1,
    "max_delivered_before_accepted_pct": 0.0,
    "max_outside_city_pct": 0.5,
    "max_shared_timestamp_pct": 1.0,
    "max_on_the_hour_pct": 5.0,
    "max_resent_record_pct": 0.5,
    "drift_watch": 0.1,
    "drift_act": 0.25,
    "drift_margin": 2.0,
    "audit_rate": 0.1,
    "min_audited_predictions": 500,
    "min_improvement_min": 0.0,
    "augment_share": 0.5,
    "augment_min_lag_min": 15.0,
    "augment_max_lag_min": 180.0,
    "augment_sample": 400000
  },
  "guard_detection_quality": {
    "duplicates_found_pct_of_injected": 100.0,
    "real_packages_wrongly_removed_as_duplicates": 0,
    "bad_feed_records_quarantined_pct": 97.3853776547489,
    "good_records_quarantined_pct": 0.02524714588905457,
    "bad_feed_coordinates_repaired_pct": 32.17102049361464,
    "good_coordinates_repaired_pct": 0.3116444570680174
  },
  "training_label_corruption": {
    "training_rows_from_fake_duplicates_pct": 2.436445201333263,
    "mean_abs_label_error_min": 1.5452837685569696
  },
  "data_contract": {
    "clean": {
      "days": 92,
      "days_failed": 0,
      "first_failed_day": null,
      "most_common_failure": null
    },
    "low_quality": {
      "days": 92,
      "days_failed": 88,
      "first_failed_day": "07-05",
      "most_common_failure": "courier timestamps not repeated"
    }
  },
  "drift_thresholds": {
    "n_pending": {
      "natural_psi": 0.05440028576700393,
      "watch": 0.10880057153400786,
      "act": 0.25
    },
    "dist_from_courier_km": {
      "natural_psi": 0.012051201694959466,
      "watch": 0.1,
      "act": 0.25
    },
    "pace_today_min": {
      "natural_psi": 0.03460977547582903,
      "watch": 0.1,
      "act": 0.25
    },
    "feed_age_min": {
      "natural_psi": 0.0,
      "watch": 0.1,
      "act": 0.25
    },
    "upload_lag_min": {
      "natural_psi": 0.0,
      "watch": 0.1,
      "act": 0.25
    }
  },
  "monthly": {
    "07-01": {
      "reference": {
        "n": 172219,
        "mae": 59.41849915862635,
        "median_ae": 30.625783412795016,
        "within_30_pct": 49.34124573943642,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.0,
        "mae_flagged": null,
        "mae_not_flagged": 59.41849915862635
      },
      "bad_data_no_fix": {
        "n": 172219,
        "mae": 68.27604940943044,
        "median_ae": 39.5502004275784,
        "within_30_pct": 41.48671168686382,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 4.309048362840337,
        "mae_flagged": 110.01385277100398,
        "mae_not_flagged": 66.39655913196208,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 96.36013845120482,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 59.17658346953794,
        "affected_share_pct": 24.471748181095002
      },
      "bad_data_with_guard": {
        "n": 172219,
        "mae": 62.785692364454235,
        "median_ae": 34.936499660990705,
        "within_30_pct": 44.97993833433013,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 4.309048362840337,
        "mae_flagged": 83.88800889525973,
        "mae_not_flagged": 61.835436348148775,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 74.23493774498846,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 59.07604672764276,
        "affected_share_pct": 24.471748181095002
      },
      "lq_feed_share_at_test_pct": 15.164835164835164
    },
    "08-01": {
      "reference": {
        "n": 193447,
        "mae": 61.20948402224855,
        "median_ae": 32.60668769730373,
        "within_30_pct": 47.2403293925468,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.0,
        "mae_flagged": null,
        "mae_not_flagged": 61.20948402224855
      },
      "bad_data_no_fix": {
        "n": 193447,
        "mae": 73.51663381036914,
        "median_ae": 49.24104955620743,
        "within_30_pct": 34.32878256059799,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 9.885394966063057,
        "mae_flagged": 88.90123661011378,
        "mae_not_flagged": 71.82897313633966,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 82.81670022583222,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 64.18121288512279,
        "affected_share_pct": 50.094858023127784
      },
      "bad_data_with_guard": {
        "n": 193447,
        "mae": 67.23525208233265,
        "median_ae": 41.20118703449617,
        "within_30_pct": 39.2329682031771,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 9.885394966063057,
        "mae_flagged": 74.36450481832294,
        "mae_not_flagged": 66.45318707653686,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 70.83751074120867,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 63.61929931813439,
        "affected_share_pct": 50.094858023127784
      },
      "lq_feed_share_at_test_pct": 35.604395604395606
    },
    "09-01": {
      "reference": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 58.451554636016695,
        "median_ae": 29.155244542746452,
        "within_30_pct": 51.00002575726354,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.0,
        "mae_flagged": null,
        "mae_not_flagged": 58.451554636016695
      },
      "bad_data_no_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 80.07341143153083,
        "median_ae": 57.52247815752412,
        "within_30_pct": 28.972413970739748,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 13.185787141974037,
        "mae_flagged": 97.15012022043983,
        "mae_not_flagged": 77.47971346707116,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 88.74665255351964,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 59.995192411346736,
        "affected_share_pct": 69.8337368637956
      },
      "bad_data_with_guard": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 69.81159762947384,
        "median_ae": 43.99324972579973,
        "within_30_pct": 36.63970739748609,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 13.185787141974037,
        "mae_flagged": 79.78407443526157,
        "mae_not_flagged": 68.2969267926325,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 73.91702657948865,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 60.30768779106042,
        "affected_share_pct": 69.8337368637956
      },
      "lq_feed_share_at_test_pct": 55.714285714285715
    }
  },
  "gated_retraining": {
    "lq_raw": [
      {
        "cutoff": "07-01",
        "deployed": "lq_raw@07-01",
        "test_mae": 68.27604940943044,
        "gate": null
      },
      {
        "cutoff": "08-01",
        "deployed": "lq_raw@08-01",
        "test_mae": 73.51663381036914,
        "gate": {
          "promote": true,
          "champion_mae": 72.50582663366838,
          "challenger_mae": 67.51325740019831,
          "audited_predictions": 17971,
          "reason": "challenger better on audited deliveries"
        }
      },
      {
        "cutoff": "09-01",
        "deployed": "lq_raw@09-01",
        "test_mae": 80.07341143153083,
        "gate": {
          "promote": true,
          "champion_mae": 78.36663549967713,
          "challenger_mae": 75.26490389894643,
          "audited_predictions": 17868,
          "reason": "challenger better on audited deliveries"
        }
      }
    ],
    "lq_guarded": [
      {
        "cutoff": "07-01",
        "deployed": "lq_guarded@07-01",
        "test_mae": 62.785692364454235,
        "gate": null
      },
      {
        "cutoff": "08-01",
        "deployed": "lq_guarded@08-01",
        "test_mae": 67.23525208233265,
        "gate": {
          "promote": true,
          "champion_mae": 65.87234875287123,
          "challenger_mae": 63.78611373647326,
          "audited_predictions": 17971,
          "reason": "challenger better on audited deliveries"
        }
      },
      {
        "cutoff": "09-01",
        "deployed": "lq_guarded@09-01",
        "test_mae": 69.81159762947384,
        "gate": {
          "promote": true,
          "champion_mae": 70.69523728462865,
          "challenger_mae": 69.6668479462848,
          "audited_predictions": 17868,
          "reason": "challenger better on audited deliveries"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "four_conditions": {
    "reference": {
      "no_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 58.451554636016695,
        "median_ae": 29.155244542746452,
        "within_30_pct": 51.00002575726354,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.0,
        "mae_flagged": null,
        "mae_not_flagged": 58.451554636016695
      },
      "with_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 58.47795188945663,
        "median_ae": 29.12322332512607,
        "within_30_pct": 50.99487430455388,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.0,
        "mae_flagged": null,
        "mae_not_flagged": 58.47795188945663
      }
    },
    "stale_only": {
      "no_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 63.34162047902207,
        "median_ae": 34.07955840270786,
        "within_30_pct": 45.80736142592211,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 0.6928703894498248,
        "mae_flagged": 87.43612241979619,
        "mae_not_flagged": 63.17351203596491,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 90.54322416411087,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 57.18856995812615,
        "affected_share_pct": 18.447352153307232
      },
      "with_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 60.006983462664884,
        "median_ae": 30.65325936937323,
        "within_30_pct": 49.281372347001856,
        "staleness_model_pct": 17.38293323717288,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 17.36747887904389,
        "mae_flagged": 63.800107335966466,
        "mae_not_flagged": 59.20975498819132,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 72.2663219285334,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 57.233899573695425,
        "affected_share_pct": 18.447352153307232
      },
      "event_time_processing_only": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 63.16197183451964,
        "median_ae": 33.974632797890926,
        "within_30_pct": 45.9110344117041,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 17.36747887904389,
        "mae_flagged": 82.07318653746792,
        "mae_not_flagged": 59.18726408658887,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 89.53857925371031,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 57.19553691770315,
        "affected_share_pct": 18.447352153307232
      },
      "staleness_model_always_on": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 60.23170794180253,
        "median_ae": 30.72683306913094,
        "within_30_pct": 49.17834329280858,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 17.36747887904389,
        "mae_flagged": 63.800107335966466,
        "mae_not_flagged": 59.48171144805622,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 71.67175883939626,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 57.64394833948536,
        "affected_share_pct": 18.447352153307232
      }
    },
    "low_quality_only": {
      "no_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 80.07341143153083,
        "median_ae": 57.52247815752412,
        "within_30_pct": 28.972413970739748,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 13.185787141974037,
        "mae_flagged": 97.15012022043983,
        "mae_not_flagged": 77.47971346707116,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 88.74665255351964,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 59.995192411346736,
        "affected_share_pct": 69.8337368637956
      },
      "with_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 66.66212154131995,
        "median_ae": 39.177118338737245,
        "within_30_pct": 40.35905625386359,
        "staleness_model_pct": 35.13097568514321,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 13.185787141974037,
        "mae_flagged": 68.0990509535873,
        "mae_not_flagged": 66.44387334503456,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 69.40706301517777,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 60.30768779106042,
        "affected_share_pct": 69.8337368637956
      },
      "guard_only": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 69.81159762947384,
        "median_ae": 43.99324972579973,
        "within_30_pct": 36.63970739748609,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 13.185787141974037,
        "mae_flagged": 79.78407443526157,
        "mae_not_flagged": 68.2969267926325,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 73.91702657948865,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 60.30768779106042,
        "affected_share_pct": 69.8337368637956
      }
    },
    "combined": {
      "no_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 83.97609359018895,
        "median_ae": 61.40478625373845,
        "within_30_pct": 27.580877807541725,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 12.443334020193694,
        "mae_flagged": 101.04349209809467,
        "mae_not_flagged": 81.55051767186185,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 94.89658965764009,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 55.07061785455212,
        "affected_share_pct": 72.57946115804657
      },
      "with_fix": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 66.87202872857593,
        "median_ae": 39.22922963483104,
        "within_30_pct": 40.27727694209767,
        "staleness_model_pct": 44.7062384092314,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 27.5145528539048,
        "mae_flagged": 67.82457886808032,
        "mae_not_flagged": 66.51045282346269,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 71.1862926765921,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 55.45259767926645,
        "affected_share_pct": 72.57946115804657
      },
      "event_time_processing_only": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 83.77804394452156,
        "median_ae": 61.16811011601743,
        "within_30_pct": 27.64720276117865,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 27.5145528539048,
        "mae_flagged": 103.5615454211155,
        "mae_not_flagged": 76.26847866701232,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 94.62387410313842,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 55.07020150344922,
        "affected_share_pct": 72.57946115804657
      },
      "guard_only": {
        "n": 155296,
        "mae": 72.84840009320904,
        "median_ae": 47.204860995167806,
        "within_30_pct": 34.56174016072532,
        "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
        "flagged_for_review_pct": 27.5145528539048,
        "mae_flagged": 85.25161558704102,
        "mae_not_flagged": 68.1402974091547,
        "mae_affected_couriers": 79.42053865923886,
        "mae_unaffected_couriers": 55.45259767926645,
        "affected_share_pct": 72.57946115804657
      }
    }
  },
  "mechanism": {
    "stale_only": {
      "matched_predictions": 155296,
      "mae_reference": 58.451554636016695,
      "mae_degraded": 63.34162047902207,
      "mean_abs_change_n_pending": 0.7202696800231934,
      "mean_abs_change_dist_from_courier_km": 0.22029395401477814,
      "mean_abs_change_pace_today_min": 1.086128830909729,
      "mean_abs_change_route_ahead": 0.7783072590827942,
      "mean_abs_change_feed_age_min": 78.45338439941406,
      "route_position_changed_pct": 17.477591180712963
    },
    "low_quality_only": {
      "matched_predictions": 155296,
      "mae_reference": 58.451554636016695,
      "mae_degraded": 80.07341143153083,
      "mean_abs_change_n_pending": 8.125264167785645,
      "mean_abs_change_dist_from_courier_km": 0.9874462485313416,
      "mean_abs_change_pace_today_min": 6.76016092300415,
      "mean_abs_change_route_ahead": 5.147312164306641,
      "mean_abs_change_feed_age_min": 237.0658416748047,
      "route_position_changed_pct": 79.39805275087575
    },
    "combined": {
      "matched_predictions": 155296,
      "mae_reference": 58.451554636016695,
      "mae_degraded": 83.97609359018895,
      "mean_abs_change_n_pending": 8.83929443359375,
      "mean_abs_change_dist_from_courier_km": 1.0576485395431519,
      "mean_abs_change_pace_today_min": 7.454298973083496,
      "mean_abs_change_route_ahead": 5.707242965698242,
      "mean_abs_change_feed_age_min": 293.70184326171875,
      "route_position_changed_pct": 81.24871213682259
    }
  },
  "unseen_degradation": {
    "no_fix": {
      "n": 151567,
      "mae": 69.71857740862414,
      "median_ae": 43.82324310384233,
      "within_30_pct": 36.622087921513256,
      "staleness_model_pct": 0.0,
      "flagged_for_review_pct": 1.82097686171792,
      "mae_flagged": 92.16370803562938,
      "mae_not_flagged": 69.30227602138743,
      "mae_affected_couriers": 74.06051062702001,
      "mae_unaffected_couriers": 60.012785220641724,
      "affected_share_pct": 69.09155686923934
    },
    "with_fix": {
      "n": 151567,
      "mae": 62.738388373503085,
      "median_ae": 33.62175029868203,
      "within_30_pct": 45.96185185429546,
      "staleness_model_pct": 12.486227213047695,
      "flagged_for_review_pct": 1.82097686171792,
      "mae_flagged": 78.83580568269836,
      "mae_not_flagged": 62.43982129148827,
      "mae_affected_couriers": 63.8324123316644,
      "mae_unaffected_couriers": 60.29284887473789,
      "affected_share_pct": 69.09155686923934
    },
    "description": "timestamps randomly off by +/-30 min instead of bulk-synced: detectors not designed for it"
  },
  "drift": {
    "clean": {
      "days": 47,
      "days_act": 3,
      "days_watch": 17,
      "first_act_day": "07-19",
      "most_drifted_feature": "pace_today_min",
      "max_psi": 0.26935297773465927
    },
    "combined": {
      "days": 15,
      "days_act": 15,
      "days_watch": 0,
      "first_act_day": "09-16",
      "most_drifted_feature": "feed_age_min",
      "max_psi": 9.167591903254895
    },
    "low_quality": {
      "days": 47,
      "days_act": 47,
      "days_watch": 0,
      "first_act_day": "07-16",
      "most_drifted_feature": "feed_age_min",
      "max_psi": 8.333654909762915
    },
    "low_quality_only": {
      "days": 15,
      "days_act": 15,
      "days_watch": 0,
      "first_act_day": "09-16",
      "most_drifted_feature": "feed_age_min",
      "max_psi": 8.333654909762915
    },
    "stale_only": {
      "days": 15,
      "days_act": 11,
      "days_watch": 2,
      "first_act_day": "09-20",
      "most_drifted_feature": "feed_age_min",
      "max_psi": 4.009806063831022
    }
  },
  "seconds": 8179.610133600014
}